As we approach the budgeting season for 2026, the dreaded question will soon be asked:
“What 2026 salary increase can we use for the Ghana budget?”
While forecasting salary increases for 2025 proved challenging due to high inflation rate, the outlook for 2026 appears more stable and predictable. This report outlines the economic context, inflation trends, and our preliminary salary increase forecast for Ghana in 2026.
Economic Context and Inflation Trends
- 2025 Inflation Overview: Inflation began 2025 at 23.5%, creating significant difficulties with salary planning and determining an equitable salary increase for 2025. However, the economic landscape has shifted considerably over the year.
- Recent Developments: In September 2025, inflation declined to 9.4%, marking: * The ninth consecutive monthly decline. * The first single-digit inflation rate since August 2021.
- Central Bank Expectations: The Bank of Ghana had anticipated inflation breaching their 6%–10% target range only in early 2026. The current pace of decline has exceeded expectations, surprising many analysts, policymakers and us.
- 2026 Inflation Forecast: Despite the downward trend, inflation is expected to remain relatively elevated over the course of 2026 albeit at a much lower range than in 2025. Our model is currently forecasting an average inflation rate of 8.6% for 2026.
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Salary Increase Forecast
- 2025 Real Salary Impact: With inflation expected to average 15.2% in 2025, many employees experienced negative real salary growth, eroding their purchasing power.
- 2026 Preliminary Forecast: We propose a salary increase of 10.0% for 2026. This translates to a real salary increase of approximately 1.4%, offering modest relief and acknowledging the inflationary pressures employees faced in 2025.
The historic inflation rates, and our economic model forecast for 2026, are enumerated in the graph below:
Ready to Finalise Your 2026 Budget?
Don’t budget based on guesswork. Use our data-driven salary increase forecast as the foundation for your 2026 Ghana payroll planning. If you require detailed market benchmark data, specific sector insights, or a consultation on how to apply this forecast to your organizational structure, our experts are here to help.
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